2、国际现代化的历史经验
国际现代化的300年进程,不仅提供了大量事实,而且包含丰富的历史经验和教训。
首先,国际现代化不能盲目行事。国际体系的结构具有相对稳定性。没有充分的物质基础和合适的国际环境,单方改变国际结构和世界秩序的努力,很难成功。虽然霸权周期转移论受到许多批评,但是,霸权周期和国际体系的稳定性是紧密相关的。
其次,国际现代化不能急于求成。国家的国际地位是可以改变的,但短期和中期改变的概率都比较小。例如,从非经济发达国家成功晋级经济发达国家行列的国家(根据人均GDP水平分类),在18世纪有美国、加拿大和爱尔兰,在19世纪有澳大利亚、新西兰和阿根廷,在20世纪只有挪威、芬兰、日本和新加坡。
其三,国际现代化不能过高估计。国家现代化的成败,是国家自身努力与国际环境共同决定的。国际现代化不能决定国家的成败,但可以影响国家的成败,加速国家分化。对于国际现代化的作用不能过高估计。国际依附只是一种暂时策略,而不是一种长期战略。
其四,国际现代化不能忽视内因。在国际现代化过程中,很多时候内部因素是发展中国家失败的主要原因。在导致国家失败的内部原因中,地理条件、社会制度、文化观念和人的作用不能低估。在国际互动过程中,有少数人可能会背叛国家利益、损公肥私或出卖同胞利益获取个人好处。虽然这种人非常非常少,但其危害比较大。
华译网上海翻译公司曾经翻译过大量有关国际现代化的历史经验资料文件。Beijing Chinese Subtitling Translation Service Agency has translated many technical documents about Historical experience for international modernization.
2. Historical experience for international modernization
The 300-year progress of international modernization not only ensures a large number of facts, but embodies rich historical experience.
Firstly, international modernization can not be carried on blindly. The structure of the international system is relatively stable. Without sufficient material foundations and appropriated international environments, the unilateral efforts in changing the international structure and world orders can hardly make a good winning. Although the theory of transfer of hegemony cycle was widely criticized, the cycle of hegemony is closely related to the stability of the international system.
Secondly, international modernization can never be achieved in an action. The international positions of nations can certainly be changed, but the probability of their short-term and medium-term changes is quite small. For instance, talking about the countries that progressed from non-economically-developed countries into economically developed countries (classified based on per-capita GDP), there were the US, Canada and Ireland in the 18th Century, Australia, New Zealand and Argentina in the 19th Century, and Norway, Finland, Japan and Singapore in the last century.
Thirdly, international modernization can not be overstated. The result of national modernization must be determined by a nation’s efforts and the international environment. International modernization can not determine the rise or fall of a nation, but it does have influence on it so that it may accelerate a nation’s polarization. Anyway, we can’t overstate the impact of international modernization. International dependency is just a temporary strategy but not a long-term one.
Fourthly, internal causes can be ignored during international modernization. For most of the time, internal factors serve as the major causes to the failure of international modernization in developing countries. These internal factors to the failure include the geographical conditions, social systems, cultural concepts and human actions. During international interactions, some people may sell their countries, the public benefits, or their compatriots for profits. Although they’re in small amounts, they pose great harms.